Mobility Energy and Transportation
E2W Market
14 May 2024
The electric vehicle (EV) market is experiencing a remarkable surge, reflecting a paradigm shift towards sustainable mobility. In line with this transformative trend, the below section will focus on electric two-wheelers (e2Ws), anticipated to command a substantial 40% share of the two-wheeler market by FY30. This momentum is fuelled by numerous factors such as government subsidies provided to the consumers at the time of purchase, as well as the cost-effectiveness of e2Ws, which boast a 15 to 20% lower Total Cost of Ownership (TCO) compared to their traditional internal combustion engines (ICE) counterparts. Additionally, there is a diverse range of new e2W models hitting the market, catering to budget-conscious consumers. Moreover, we will also discuss the various challenges that lie ahead in this road to growth and how they can be addressed.

E2W overview
The electric passenger market is projected to reach ~US$ 36B in FY30 from US$ 3B in FY24 growing at a CAGR of 49%. The e2W market is expected to grow from US$ 1.5B to US$ 18B in the same period at a 48% CAGR as shown in Exhibit 1. Despite the remarkable sales volume growth, the penetration of e2Ws remains in its nascent phase, currently standing at 2.2%. However, the trajectory is expected to accelerate, with penetration forecasted to reach 16% by FY30, driven by the escalating adoption of e2Ws

The adoption levels among these EV categories vary and depend on their specific use cases and the variety of models offered by OEMs apart from their price relative to their ICE counterparts.

In the e-PV market, the level of product variant coverage varies across the 2W and 4W segments. In the 2W high-speed scooter category, the market is comparatively well represented with multiple OEMs both incumbents and new age EV players like TVS, OLA Electric, Ather, Hero Electric, and Pure Present. These companies combined offer approximately 26 different variants at multiple price points, providing consumers with a wide array of options as shown in Exhibit 2.

On the other hand, the low-speed scooter segment is relatively underserved, with only 6 models available from Hero electric, Pure, Yulu, and Okinawa. For motorbikes, the market is still at a nascent stage and rapidly evolving, with 7 models at present offered by Revolt, Pure, and Komaki.

TCO analysis

While electric bikes and scooters have high initial investments, overall ownership costs throughout the lifecycle of vehicle are more economical than traditional vehicles. The higher upfront capital costs associated with e2Ws are effectively balanced by substantial fuel consumption savings compared to their ICE counterparts. For e2W scooters sold with subsidy, there is reduction of 18% in total ownership cost over ICE 2W resulting in lifetime savings worth INR 40K, compared to a 10% reduction in total ownership cost when sold without subsidy. Similarly, e2W motorcycles are 15% (with subsidy) and 9% (without subsidy) more cost efficient than the petrol counterparts as shown in Exhibit 3.

E2Ws have a battery pack, charger, inverter, electric motors and cooling units as unique components compared to ICE counterparts, requiring significant component transformation, with only 30%-35% cost overlap between an EV and an ICE vehicle and rest of the cost is associated to the unique components used in EVs. The following exhibit describes cost breakdown across segments for EV vs ICE as shown in Exhibit 4.
Expansion Opportunities

The landscape of electric passenger 2-wheelers is witnessing significant innovation and expansion efforts from both established incumbents and emerging pure-play EV companies. Established OEMs such as Vida, Bajaj, and TVS are strategically shifting their focus towards EVs. They are ramping up EV sales targets, expanding EV distribution networks to new cities, introducing new models, and making substantial capital investments to enhance production infrastructure. Conversely, pure-play EV players like Ola and Okinawa are aggressively diversifying their product portfolios. They are unveiling new electric scooter and motorcycle models and expanding their sales outlets and manufacturing capacities. This strategic maneuvering by both established and emerging players reflects a concerted effort to capitalize on the growing demand for e2Ws and solidify their positions in the market.
Opportunities and challenges for e2W adoption in India

Despite the emergence of numerous new players and established incumbents entering the Indian EV segment, challenges persist that hinder widespread adoption. Key obstacles include the substantial upfront costs, range anxiety, limited availability of options compared to traditional ICE vehicles, and the underdeveloped charging infrastructure. Furthermore, issues such as high financing rates and safety concerns, highlighted by incidents like battery fires, underscore the necessity for continuous safety measures.

Addressing these challenges will be critical in shaping the adoption landscape of e2Ws in India, paving the way for their increased acceptance and integration into mainstream transportation.

We at Praxis Global Alliance, have built a strong IP across clean mobility ecosystem ranging across products & services, and players across the ecosystem stand a chance to leverage our strong capabilities to build on their current offerings or venture into new business opportunities and stay ahead of the new & upcoming competition.

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